Following four months of declines or little change, employment rose by 108,000 (+0.6%) in October. This increase—widespread across industries, including manufacturing, construction, and accommodation and food services—brought employment back to a level on par with the most recent peak observed in May 2022. All of the gain in October was in full-time work, another indicator of economic strength. This was the first gain among private sector employees since March when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates.

After declining in September, the unemployment rate remained at 5.2% in October, 0.3 percentage points above the record low of 4.9% observed in June and July. The adjusted unemployment rate—which includes people who wanted a job but did not look for one—was virtually unchanged in October at 7.1%.

In October, the labour force—or the total number of people who are either employed or unemployed—was 110,000 (+0.5%) more significant than in September. The labour force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 64.9% in October but fell 0.5 percentage points short of the recent high of 65.4% in February and March 2022.

Employment rose by 24,000 (+1.4%) in manufacturing, mainly offsetting the decrease of 28,000 (-1.6%) recorded in September. Most of the increase was attributable to British Columbia (+12,000; +6.9%) and Nova Scotia (+3,700; +11.6%). On a year-over-year basis, employment in manufacturing was little changed.

The number of people working in accommodation and food services increased by 18,000 (+1.7%) in October, the first increase in the industry since May. According to the latest data from the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, the industry had a higher job vacancy rate than all other industries in August.

Employment in professional, scientific and technical services rose by 18,000 in October (+1.0%), the third increase in six months. The number of people working in the industry has followed a long-term upward trend since June 2020, and in October was 297,000 (+19.3%) above its pre-pandemic level.

In October, the number of people working in wholesale and retail trade declined by 20,000 (-0.7%). Employment in the industry last increased in May and was little changed on a year-over-year basis in October. According to the latest data on retail trade, while retail sales increased 0.7% to $61.8 billion in August, advance estimates suggest that sales decreased 0.5% in September.

Of paramount importance to the Bank of Canada’s endeavours to wrestle inflation to a 2% pace, average hourly wages last month were 5.6% higher than one year earlier, accelerating from a rate of 5.2% in September. Despite average wages growing by more than 5% on a year-over-year basis in each of the past five months, they have not kept pace with inflation, which was 6.9% in September, contributing to concerns about affordability and the cost of living for many Canadians.

In separate news, the US employment data for October were also released today, showing stronger-than-expected hiring and wage gains, while the jobless rate ticked up a bit more than expected.

Bottom Line

Today’s labour force data in Canada throws into question the widespread assumption that the Bank of Canada can ease off the brakes very soon. I believe Governor Tiff Macklem will hike rates by another 50 bps in December and continue with 25 bp increases early next year. Today’s employment report raised the odds of the peak in the policy target of 4.5%.

Most market analysts had expected a 75 bps hike in response to the disappointing inflation data for September. Headline inflation has slowed from 8.1% to 6.9% over the past three months, primarily due to the fall in gasoline prices. However, the Bank said that “price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.”

In his press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank chose to reduce today’s rate hike from 75 bps last month (and 100 bps in July) to today’s 50 bps because “there is evidence that the economy is slowing.” When asked if this is a pivot from very big rate increases, Macklem said that further rate increases are coming, but how large they will be is data-dependent. Global factors will also influence future Bank of Canada actions.

“The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023 and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.”

The press release concluded with the following statement: “Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restore price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

Reading the tea leaves here, the fact that the Bank of Canada referred to ‘increases’ in interest rates in the plural suggests it will not be just one more hike and done.

The Bank of Canada released its latest global and Canadian economies forecast in their October MPR. They have reduced their outlook across the board. Concerning the Canadian outlook, GDP growth in 2022 has been revised down by about ¼ of a percentage point to around 3¼%. It has been reduced by close to 1 percentage point in 2023 and almost ½ of a percentage point in 2024, to about 1% and 2%, respectively. These revisions leave the level of real GDP about 1½% lower by the end of 2024.

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in 2022 and 2023 is anticipated to be lower than previously projected. The outlook for CPI inflation has been revised down by ¼ of a percentage point to just under 7% in 2022 and by ½ of a percentage point to about 4% in 2023. The outlook for inflation in 2024 is largely unchanged. The downward revisions are mainly due to lower gasoline prices and weaker demand. Easing global cost pressures, including lower-than-expected shipping costs, also contribute to reducing inflation in 2023. The weaker Canadian dollar partially offsets these cost pressures.

The Bank is expecting lower household spending growth. Consumer spending is expected to contract modestly in Q4 of this year and through the first half of next year. Higher interest rates weigh on household spending, with housing and big-ticket items most affected (Chart below). Decreasing house prices, financial wealth and consumer confidence also restrain household spending. Borrowing costs have risen sharply. The costs for those taking on a new mortgage are up markedly. Households renewing an existing mortgage are facing a larger increase than has been experienced during any tightening cycle over the past 30 years. For example, a homeowner who signed a five-year fixed-rate mortgage in October 2017 would now be faced with a mortgage rate of 1½ to 2 percentage points higher at renewal.

Higher borrowing costs are affecting spending on big-ticket items. Spending on automobiles, furniture and appliances is the most sensitive to interest rates and is already showing signs of slowing. As higher interest rates work their way through the economy, disposable income growth and the demand for services will also slow. Past experience suggests that the demand for travel, hotels, restaurant meals and communications services will be impacted the most. Household spending strengthens beginning in the second half of 2023 and extends through 2024. Population growth and rising disposable incomes support demand as the impact of the tightening in financial conditions wanes. For example, new residential construction is boosted by strong immigration in markets that are already particularly tight.

Governor Macklem and his officials raised the prospect of a technical recession. “A couple of quarters with growth slightly below zero is just as likely as a couple of quarters with small positive growth” in the first half of next year, the bank said in the MPR.

The Bank of Canada’s surprising decision today to hike interest rates by 50 bps, 25 bps less than expected, reflected the Bank’s significant downgrade to the economic outlook. Weaker growth is expected to dampen inflation pressures sufficiently to warrant today’s smaller move.

A 50 bps rate hike is still an aggressive move, and the implications are considerable for the housing market. The prime rate will now quickly rise to 5.95%, increasing the variable mortgage interest rate another 50 bps, which will likely take the qualifying rate to roughly 7.5%.

Fixed mortgage rates, tied to the 5-year government of Canada bond yield, will be less affected. The 5-year bond yield declined sharply today–down nearly 25 bps to 3.42%–with the smaller-than-expected rate hike.

Barring substantial further weakening in the economy or a big move in inflation, I expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates again in December by 25 bps and then again once or twice in 2023. The terminal overnight target rate will likely be 4.5%, and the Bank will hold firm for the rest of the year. Of course, this is data-dependent, and the level of uncertainty is elevated.

Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% year-over-year (y/y) in September, following a gain of 5.3% in August. Prices for durable goods, such as furniture and passenger vehicles, grew faster in September compared with August. In September, the Mortgage Interest Cost Index continued to put upward pressure on the all-items CPI Canadians renewed or initiated mortgages at higher interest rates.

Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1% in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.
Average hourly wages rose 5.2% on a year-over-year basis in September, meaning that, on average, prices rose faster than wages. The gap in September was larger compared with August.

In September, prices for food purchased from stores (+11.4%) grew faster year-over-year since August 1981 (+11.9%). Prices for food purchased from stores have increased faster than the all-items CPI for ten consecutive months since December 2021.

Contributing to price increases for food and beverages were unfavourable weather, higher prices for essential inputs such as fertilizer and natural gas, and geopolitical instability stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Food price growth remained broad-based in September. On a year-over-year basis, Canadians paid more for meat (+7.6%), dairy products (+9.7%), bakery products (+14.8%), and fresh vegetables (+11.8%), among other food items.

Price pressures might have peaked, but today’s data release will not be welcome news for the Bank of Canada. There is no evidence that core inflation is moderating despite the housing and consumer spending slowdown. The average of the Bank’s favourite measure of core inflation remains stuck at 5.3%. Combined with the Governor’s recent harsh rhetoric, the high probability that the Fed will hike rates 75 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and the weak Canadian dollar, there is no doubt the Bank will increase their overnight policy target to at least 3.75%, and could well go the full 75 bps to 4.0% next week. I would bet that they will not quit there, with further hikes to come in December and next year by central banks worldwide.

The Government of Canada yield curve is now steeply inverted, reflecting the widely held expectation that the economy is slowing. The prime rate will increase sharply next week, increasing variable mortgage rates again. Fixed mortgage rates will rise as well, but not by as much, continuing a pattern we’ve seen since March when the Bank of Canada began the current tightening cycle. We are unlikely to see a pivot to lower rates in the next year as inflation pressures remain very sticky.

The full effects of the most recent rate hikes have not yet manifested. Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in September. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 3.9% between August and September 2022. From May through August, month-over-month declines have been progressively smaller. The September result marked a slight increase in the current sales slowdown that began with the Bank of Canada’s first rate hike back in March.

While about 60% of all local markets saw sales fall from August to September, the national number was pulled lower by the fact markets with declines included Greater Vancouver, Calgary, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in September 2022 came in 32.2% below that same month last year. It stood about 12% below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for that month (see chart below).

“September was another month of lower sales activity, although, with many sellers also opting to play the waiting game, the market remains on the tighter side of balanced market territory,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA. “It makes for an interesting dynamic, one that doesn’t really have many historical precedents. The market has changed so much in the last year, and the adjustment to higher borrowing costs is still underway.”

“Up until recently, higher borrowing costs had disproportionally affected the fixed-rate space, with buyers able to qualify more easily if they went with a variable rate mortgage,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “The Bank of Canada’s most recent rate hike in early September finally closed that door, so it was not a big surprise to see additional softness on the sales side. The important thing to remember is we’re still in the middle of a period of rapid adjustment, with buyers and sellers trying to feel each other out while a lot of people have had to take their home search plans back to the drawing board. As such, resale markets may remain on the quiet side for some time yet, with the flipside of that coin being even more pressure on rental markets.”

Unusually, new listings would be so listless during a housing slowdown. However, the CREA data only go back 42 years, when interest rates trended sharply downward. Sellers today typically have mortgages at far lower than current rates, which no doubt dampens their enthusiasm to sell. Distressed sellers apparently listed their homes earlier this cycle, with the rest remaining on the sidelines for now. That could change if interest rates rise substantially further, although the incentives to stay in place continue high.

With sales down and new listings seeing a minor change in September, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52% compared to 53.6% in August. The September 2022 reading for the national sales-to-new listings ratio was back on par with those in June and July and slightly below its long-term average of 55.1%.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2022, up slightly from 3.5 months at the end of August. While the number of months of inventory is still well below the long-term average of about five months, it’s also up quite a bit from the all-time low of 1.7 months set at the beginning of 2022.

Breaking it down regionally, most of the monthly declines in recent months have been in markets across Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in British Columbia; however, in August, Ontario markets contributed most to the overall national decline.

Looking across the Prairies, prices in Alberta appear to have peaked. Prices still rise slightly in Saskatchewan, while Manitoba recorded the only decline. In Quebec, prices have dipped somewhat in the last couple of months. On the East coast, the softening of prices confined to Halifax-Dartmouth is now also appearing in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador. By contrast, prices in PEI continue to edge ahead on a month-over-month basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 7.1% on a year-over-year basis in August. This was the first single-digit increase in almost two years, as year-over-year comparisons have been winding down at a brisk pace from the near-30% record year-over-year gains logged just six months ago.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in September 2022, not a small decline historically, but smaller than in June, July and August.

Breaking it down regionally, most of the recent monthly declines had been in markets across Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in B.C. The standout trend in August and September was that quite a few of those Ontario markets saw monthly price declines get stopped in their tracks, mainly in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In a few markets prices even popped up a bit between August and September.

Looking across the Prairies, prices in Edmonton and Winnipeg are down a bit from their peaks, while prices are sliding sideways in Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon. Similarly in Quebec, prices have dipped in Montreal but are mostly flat in Quebec City.

On the East Coast, price softness that had been confined to the Halifax-Dartmouth area appears to now be showing up in parts of New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, while prices in Prince Edward Island have flattened out in recent months but have not yet moved any lower.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was still up by 3.3% on a year-over-year basis in September, a far cry from the near-30% record year-over-year gains logged in early 2022.

In other news, US CPI data, released yesterday for September, show inflation remains stubbornly high, assuring another 75 bps increase in the US overnight policy rate when the Fed meets again on November 3.

A closely watched measure of US consumer prices rose by more than forecast to a 40-year high last month, pressuring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6%. On the heels of a solid jobs report last week and record-low unemployment, the inflation data likely cement an additional 75-basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Even more noteworthy, however, is that immediately following the release of the inflation report, the market assessment of the maximum overnight rate rose from 4.6% to 4.85% for March of next year, substantially above the current overnight rate of 3.25%.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s next policy announcement date is October 26, when we will likely see another hike in the overnight policy target of at least 50 bps to 3.75%. Much will depend on next week’s release of the September CPI report for Canada on Wednesday, October 19. All eyes will be on the Bank’s measures of core inflation, which have been stubbornly sticky at above 5% on average. If the data disappoint on the high side, we can’t rule out a 75-bps rate hike the following week.

I believe both the Bank of Canada and the Fed will hike overnight rates further later this year and into next year. They are also not likely to begin to reverse these rate hikes until 2024.

You can see in the chart below that in late 1979, the Volcker Fed hiked the overnight policy rate to levels well above the inflation rate and kept real interest rates (nominal rate minus inflation rate) positive for an extended period.

The current Fed Chair, Jay Powell, has expressed deep admiration for Paul Volcker, calling him “the greatest economic public servant of the era.” Last month, Powell alluded to his predecessor’s record of persistence, saying that policymakers “will keep at it until the job is done” — invoking Volcker’s memoir, “Keeping at It.”

The Bank of Canada was no slouch on the inflation front as well. As the chart shows, the Bank hiked interest rates in lockstep with the Fed in the Volcker years and even more in the early 1990s when Ottawa was fighting Canadian budgetary red ink to the ground.

This time around, Tiff Macklem has been ahead of the Fed in hiking interest rates and, in a speech on Thursday, said that the economy is still “clearly” in excess demand, with businesses facing an extremely tight labour market, wage gains broadening and underlying inflation pressures showing no signs of letting up. Macklem said that the sources of inflation, which started with goods prices, are broadening to the service sector. “. Labour markets remain very tight. Job vacancies have eased a little in recent months but remain exceptionally high. Our business surveys report widespread labour shortages. And wage growth has risen and continues to broaden.”

“With demand running ahead of supply, competition is posing less of a restraint on price increases, and businesses are passing through higher input costs more quickly. As a result, higher energy and material costs are showing up in the prices of a growing list of goods and services. So even if there is some relief at the gas pumps, price pressures remain high and continue to broaden. In August, the prices of more than three-quarters of the goods and services that make up the CPI were rising faster than 3%.”

Macklem continued, “As we look for a more fundamental turning point in inflation, measures of core inflation are becoming increasingly relevant…after taking out volatile components in the CPI that don’t reflect generalized changes in prices, inflation is running about 5%. That’s too high. We can also see that our core measures have yet to decline meaningfully even though total CPI inflation has come down in the last couple of months. Going forward, we will be watching our measures of core inflation closely for clear evidence of a turning point in underlying inflation.” In conclusion, the governor said, “there is more to be done….We know we are still a long way from the 2% target. We know it will take some time to get there. We also know there could be setbacks along the way, and we can’t afford to let high inflation become entrenched.”

There are many views on how far the central banks will have to hike rates from here, but the critical issue is to reach a point where rates are meaningfully restrictive. A rule of thumb is that the overnight policy rate must rise to exceed the inflation rate. Fed Chairman Powell has said that he believes that real interest rates should be positive across the yield curve. Today, long and short US rates are still the lowest compared to inflation since the Burns era in the mid-1970s. (see chart below). Traders are betting that the US overnight rate will rise another 125 basis points (bps) by yearend and continue to rise next year to a median estimate of 4.6%.

Short-term money markets are betting the Bank of Canada will stop its hiking cycle at about 4%, versus a Fed benchmark rate peaking at about 4.6% and remaining below US short-term rates for at least another three years.

This is especially unreasonable given the fall in the Canadian dollar, which is now trading at US$0.728 compared to US$0.814 one year ago. This depreciation reflects the inordinate strength of the US dollar–the global safe-haven currency in a time of enormous uncertainty and volatility. The Canadian dollar has fared far better than other G-7 countries over this period. But the decline in our currency will raise the prices of the many US products and services we import, adding to inflation.

Inverted Yield Curves

In Canada and the US, 2-year yields have risen sharply to levels well above 5-year yields. As of October 6, the 2-year Government of Canada bond yield is at 4.0% compared to the 5-year yield at 3.49% and the 10-year yield at 3.31%. This implies the markets expect a slowdown in economic activity, but that does not mean that the overnight policy rate will fall in 2023 as Bay Street expects, especially if core inflation remains well above 2%. The Canadian prime rate is currently 5.45%, well above the 5-year yield of 3.49%. When the Bank of Canada Governing Council meets again on October 26, it will likely raise the policy rate by at least 50 bps to 3.75%, taking the prime rate up to 5.95% or higher—clearly improving the relative attractiveness of fixed-rate mortgage loans.

For most of my readers, inflation is a brand-new experience, and so are rising interest rates. Inflation in Canada was at 2.2% when the pandemic began, and the 5-year bond yield was a mere 1.3%. Quickly the central bank cut the overnight rate from 1.75% to 0.25%, the prime rate fell from 3.95% to 2.45%, and the 5-year bond yield fell to a low of about 0.32%. Housing demand exploded and continued strong until it peaked in February 2022 when the Bank of Canada began to hike interest rates.

Interest rates will not fall to pre-pandemic levels next year or even the year after. And we will likely never see interest rates at pandemic levels again, at least I hope not, because it would take another global economic shutdown. Hence, mortgage-borrower psychology will change. Many more homeowners will choose to lock in fixed interest rates, and by the time this is over, a new generation will realize that interest rates don’t just fall but sometimes rise to levels higher than expected and stay there longer than expected—a painful lesson to learn.

Canada added just over 21,000 jobs last month, with both full-time and part-time work increasing. Gains in educational services, health care, and social assistance were offset by losses in manufacturing; information, culture and recreation; transportation and warehousing, and public administration.

Employment increased in four provinces, led by British Columbia, while fewer people were working in Ontario and Prince Edward Island.

Total hours worked were down 0.6% in September 2022. Despite declining by 1.1% since June, total hours worked were up 2.4% y/y.

Bottom Line

Today’s labour force data in Canada and the US do nothing to deter the central banks from their rate-hiking paths. This is the last employment report before their decision dates–October 26th for the Bank of Canada and November 2nd for the Fed–although we will see the release of inflation and housing data before they meet again. It is already baked into the cake that rate hikes will continue.

Both central banks recently cautioned against market expectations that the fight against inflation was nearly over. Today’s data reinforce what we have already been told.

The bad news is that inflation will likely remain too high for some time. Many of the global factors that have pushed up inflation won’t go away quickly enough — supply chain disruptions continue, geopolitical tensions are high, and commodity prices remain volatile. And here at home, our economy has been running too hot. As Canadians finally enjoy a fully reopened economy, they want to buy more goods and services than our economy can produce. Businesses are having trouble keeping up with demand, and that’s leading to delays and higher prices. The result is broad-based inflation. Even if inflation came down a little in July, prices for more than half of the goods and services that make up the CPI basket are rising faster than five per cent.

As the central bank, it’s our job to control inflation and that means we need to cool things down. That’s why we have been raising interest rates since March. In July, we took the unusual step of raising the policy interest rate by a full percentage point, to 2.5 per cent. Increasing our policy rate raises borrowing costs across the economy — for things like personal loans, car loans, and mortgages. And when we increase the cost of borrowing, consumers tend to borrow and spend less and save more. We need to slow down spending to allow supply time to catch up with demand and take the steam out of inflation.

One area of the economy where it is easy to see how this works is the housing market. With higher mortgage costs, housing activity has slowed quickly after unsustainable growth during the pandemic, and housing prices are moderating. As housing slows, peoples’ spending on housing-related goods and services, such as renovations and appliances and furniture, should also slow.

To tame inflation, we need to bring overall demand in the economy into better balance with supply. Our goal is to cool the economy enough to get inflation back to the two per cent target. We don’t want to choke off demand — we want to slow its growth. That’s what we call a soft landing. By acting forcefully in raising interest rates now, we are trying to avoid the need for even higher interest rates and a sharper slowing down the road.

I know some Canadians are asking, “Why are you raising the cost of borrowing when the cost of everything is already too high?”

We recognize that for many Canadians higher interest rates will add to the difficulties they are already facing with high inflation. But it’s by raising borrowing costs in the short term that we will bring inflation down for the long term. This will ultimately be better for everyone because high inflation hurts us all. It eats away at our purchasing power and makes it difficult to plan our spending and saving decisions. It feels unfair and that erodes confidence in our economy.

The best way to protect people from high inflation is to eliminate it. That’s our job, and we are determined to do it. Tuesday’s inflation number offers a bit of relief, but unfortunately, it will take some time before inflation is back to normal. We know our job is not done yet — it won’t be done until inflation gets back to the two per cent target.

Tiff Macklem is governor of the Bank of Canada

I published Macklem’s statement in its entirety to do it justice. You can decide whether you think the overnight rate will go up by 50 vs 75 bps on September 7th, but undoubtedly it will go up. It is also clear that the Bank will not cut the policy rate until inflation is at the 2% target. So don’t assume that variable mortgage rates will decline quickly in response to a slowdown in the economy. The Bank’s emphasis on the housing slowdown being an essential precursor to the reduction in overall economic activity portends an extended period of credit stringency.

This is a sea change in the economy. This is the end of a forty-year bull market in bonds triggered by the disinflationary forces of globalization, cheap emerging market labour and rapid technological advance. It is also the end of very cheap credit. Household balance sheets will feel the pinch. Recent home borrowers who benefited from the record-low mortgage rates for the two years beginning in March 2020 will increasingly feel the constraint of higher borrowing costs on their discretionary spending. Ultimately, this will return inflation to its 2% target, but it will take a while.