Bottom Line
Before today’s report, traders were pricing in a pause at the next policy decision, with a possibility of a 25 basis-point hike. Barring an excellent inflation report for December, another rate hike is likely on January 25, likely a 25 bp hike. Given what’s happened in the first three weeks of this month, there is a good chance that the almost 14% drop in gasoline prices (compared to a 4% decline in December a year ago) could pull this month’s headline inflation down to 6.5%. However, many components of core inflation continue to rise.
While the BoC will slow the rate hikes in 2023, at least two or three more hikes are still possible, with no rate cuts likely next year. Remember, wage inflation is running at 5.6% y/y, and wage negotiations are getting more aggressive. |