Bank of Canada Will Not Be Happy With This Inflation Report Canada’s headline inflation rate ticked down slightly last month to 6.9%, but measures of core inflation remain stubbornly high, and food prices hit a 41-year high. Lower gasoline prices were primarily responsible for the decline in inflation in the past three months. Bond markets […]

Orderly Housing Correction Continues There are many unusual aspects to the current housing correction, but fundamentally the most noteworthy is how orderly and non-chaotic it has been. Home sales have slowed, but so have new listings, so the price declines are more muted than we might have expected. This is not a housing collapse. It […]

Forty-Three Years Ago, I Was Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s Special Assistant Inflation appears to be book-ending my career. I started my work as an economist in the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., in the late 1970s. Inflation had been trending higher for years. Neither Arthur Burns nor G. William Miller, […]

Tight Labour Market Fuels Higher Wages Today’s Labour Force Survey showed that employment grew in September for the first time in four months. Job gains remained moderate despite the high number of vacancies, indicating how tight the job market remains. Wage rates rose 5.2% year-over-year (y/y), the fourth consecutive month for which wage gains exceeded […]

Inflation Cooled Again in August, But Higher Rates Still Coming Canada’s headline inflation rate cooled again in August, even a bit more than expected. The consumer price index rose 7.0% from a year ago, down from 7.6% in July and a forty-year high of 8.1% in June, mainly on the back of lower gasoline prices. […]

Housing Softens Again in August The full effects of the most recent rate hikes have not yet manifested. Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in August, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® […]

The Bank of Canada Hiked Rates Again And Isn’t Finished Yet The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 75 basis points today to 3.25% and signalled that the policy rate would rise further. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its […]

Macklem’s Op-Ed (emphasis is mine) National Post Comment, August 16, 2022 Inflation in Canada has come down a little, but it remains far too high. After rising rapidly to reach 8.1 per cent in June, inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was 7.6 per cent in July.The good news is that it looks […]

Gasoline Prices Dipped, But No Time To Celebrate While we are all grateful that gasoline prices declined from record highs in July, today’s release of the July inflation data shows that the underlying inflation momentum remains too strong for comfort. Governor Macklem will likely continue to hike the policy rate aggressively when they next announce […]

Housing Slowdown Continues in July Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in July, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 5.3% between June and July 2022. The pace of home […]