The Canadian Jobs Report Was Much Weaker Than Expected In February  Today’s Labour Force Survey showed considerable weakness last month, even before the Gulf War took hold of the global economy. Employment fell by 83,400 jobs after edging down in January (-25,000; -0.1%). This is the largest decline in employment in more than four years. On a […]

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which […]

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation falling to 2.5%, the […]

CPI Inflation in Canada Rose to 2.4% in December The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 2.2% increase in the prior two months. The year-over-year acceleration in the all-items CPI was driven by the temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break that began on December 14, 2024. This resulted in monthly declines […]

Housing Activity Fell in December, Rounding Out A Disappointing Year Today’s release of December housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the market ended 2025 with declining sales and prices due to ongoing economic uncertainty. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On an annual […]

Canadian Job Growth Slows Markedly in December as the Unemployment Rate Rises to 6.8% Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for December was weaker than expected. Employment was little changed (+8200; 0.0%), and the employment rate held steady at 60.9%. This followed three consecutive monthly increases. The jobless rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, as […]

Canadian Housing Market in a Holding Pattern Today’s release of the November housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed that national home sales fell year over year, as both month-over-month new listings and the Home Price Index showed prices declined once again. Over the past month, the consensus for Canada’s economic outlook […]

Good News on the Inflation Front Will Keep the BoC on the Sidelines The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.2% year over year in November, as core inflation continued to ease. Accelerating costs for food and some other goods were offset by slowing price growth for services. In November, prices for services rose […]

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady Today, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation between 2.5% and 3%, the Governing […]