Weak Canadian Job Creation Is The First Fallout From The Trade War Today’s Labour Force Survey for March was weaker than expected. Employment decreased by 33,000 (-0.2%) in March, the first decrease since January 2022. The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December and January, totalling 211,000 (+1.0%). The employment rate—the […]

Canadian Inflation Surged to 2.6% in February, Much Stronger Than Expected The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. With the federal tax break ending on February 15, the GST and HST were reapplied to eligible products. This put upward pressure on consumer prices for those items, as taxes paid by consumers […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelined Buyers Canadian existing home sales plunged last month as tariff concerns moth-balled home buying intentions. According to data released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, transactions fell 9.8% from January. Activity was at its lowest level since November 2023. Benchmark home prices declined 0.8%, and new listings plunged, more than […]

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 2.75%, within the neutral range of 2.25%—2.75%. Tariff tremors have already led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending, a weakening labour market, and […]

Trump Did It–Trade War Starts Today Trump has imposed tariffs of 25% on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, 10% on Canadian energy, and an additional  10% on goods from China. He justified these actions by claiming they would force Mexico and Canada to address issues related to undocumented migration and drug trafficking. However, while […]

Canada Finished 2024 on a Stronger Note, But Tariffs Remain a Concern This morning, Statistics Canada released the GDP data for the final quarter of last year, showing a stronger-than-expected increase in household final consumption spending, exports, and business investment. However, drawdowns of business inventories and higher imports tempered the overall growth. In Q4, the […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Is Not Good For the Canadian Housing Market Canadian MLS® Systems posted a double-digit jump in new supply in January 2025 when compared to December 2024. At the same time, sales activity fell off at the end of the month, likely reflecting uncertainty over the potential for a trade war with the […]

Canadian Inflation Edged Upward to 1.9% Y/Y in January In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% year over year (y/y), up from 1.8% in December. This rise was primarily due to an uptick in energy prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased by 1.7% in January, down from 1.8% in December. Higher energy […]

Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report in January Today’s Labour Force Survey for January surprised on the high side as businesses expanded employment despite threats of a tariff war with the US. According to Statistics Canada, employment increased by 76,000 last month, bringing the jobless rate down to 6.6%. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a smaller rise […]