Federal Budget Revamp, FY 2025-2026 Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% as was widely expected. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. The economy will grow at about a 0.5% pace in […]

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.25% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% as was widely expected. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. The economy will grow at about a […]

Canadian Inflation Stronger Than Expected The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9% increase in August. The acceleration in headline inflation from 1.9% in August was also larger than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which was 2.2%. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline […]

Canadian Employment Rises More Than Expected, But Not Enough To Fully Offset Prior Two-Month Job Loss Today’s Labour Force Survey for September was stronger than expected, with a net employment gain of 60,400, but the unemployment rate was steady at 7.1% as more people entered the workforce. The employment gain was driven by full-time work. […]

Canadian Home Sales Post Best September In Four Years Today’s release of the September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a pullback on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 1.7% on a month-over-month basis in September 2025. Nevertheless, it was the best month of […]

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.5% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as was widely expected. Following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation report, the Bank believes that underlying inflation was 2.5% year-over-year. Through the recent period of tariff turmoil, the Governing Council has closely monitored the […]

Canadian Inflation More Muted Than Expected, Giving the Green Light for BoC Easing Tomorrow The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase in July. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent year over year in August (-12.7%) compared to July (-16.1%), resulting in faster growth in headline […]

Canadian Home Sales Post Best August In Four Years Today’s release of the August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems increased by 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best August for […]

Weak August Jobs Report in Canada Bodes Well for a BoC Rate Cut Today’s Labour Force Survey for August was weaker than expected, indicating an excess supply in the labour market and the economy. Employment fell by 66,000 (-0.3%) in August, extending the decline recorded in July (-41,000; -0.2%). The employment decrease in August was mainly due to a […]

Tariff Turmoil Takes Its Toll Statistics Canada released Q2 GDP data, showing a weaker-than-expected -1.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate, in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but a larger dip than the consensus forecast. The contraction primarily reflected a sharp decline in exports, down 26.8%, which reduced headline GDP growth by 8.1 percentage points. Business fixed […]