| The unemployment rate in Canada was at 5.5% in August, unchanged from the 18-month high from the previous month and slightly below the market estimate of 5.6%. The data consolidated evidence of some softening in the Canadian labour market since the prior year, but the jobless rate remains well below pre-pandemic averages, and the labour market is tight compared to historical levels. Nevertheless, job vacancies are trending downward, and the ratio of unemployment to job vacancies is rising.
Since the beginning of the year, average monthly employment gains are running at about 25,000, while the working age population is growing at 81,000. The surge in immigration warrants a larger than historically normal pace of job growth to maintain any given level of unemployment.
The Bank of Canada paused rate hikes last week saying that excess demand is falling. Today’s employment growth–though stronger than expected–is consistent with that point of view. |
