Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent year over year in August (-12.7%) compared to July (-16.1%), resulting in faster growth in headline inflation. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, following increases of 2.5% in each of the previous three months.

Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI were lower prices for travel tours and fresh fruit compared with July.

The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-over-month in August. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.2%.

Yearly, gasoline prices fell 12.7% in August, compared with a 16.1% decline in July. The smaller year-over-year decrease was partially due to a base-year effect. In August 2024, gasoline prices declined 2.6% month over month, as concerns about slower economic growth began to emerge. In August 2025, prices rose 1.4% month-over-month, primarily due to higher refining margins that offset lower crude oil costs.

Prices for cellular services fell to a lesser extent year over year in August (-1.2%) compared with July (-6.6%). Monthly, prices were up 1.5% in August, as multiple providers increased prices with fewer back-to-school sales available for cellular phone plans.
Partially offsetting the price increase were lower prices month over month for multipurpose digital devices (-1.5%), which include smartphones and tablets.

Grocery price inflation remains a thorn, up a tick to 3.5% y/y (and partly explains the gap between the BoC’s 3% core measures and the more benign 2.4%). In August, prices for meat rose 7.2% year-over-year, following a 4.7% increase in July. Prices for fresh fruit fell 1.1% in August, after increasing 3.9% in July. Price declines for grapes, other fresh fruit, and berries (including cherries) contributed the most to the yearly price decrease for fresh fruit in August.

Prices for clothing and footwear rose 1.7% year-over-year last month, compared with a 0.8% increase in July. The increase in August was primarily due to a base-year effect, as prices declined by 0.6% in August 2024.

Year over year, prices for travel services decreased 3.8% in August, following a 1.2% decrease in July.

Shelter cost trends are now more favourable, as sagging home prices and a rare lull in home insurance costs cut owned accommodation by 0.1% month-over-month for a second consecutive month; this had not occurred since 2020. Rent remains the single most significant driver of overall inflation, although it cooled to 4.5% y/y (from 5.1%) and seems headed lower.

However, the shorter-term metrics on most of the core indices were more favourable, as the three-month trend on trim and median averaged 2.5%. Recall that the BoC has recently suggested underlying inflation trends are around 2-1/2%, and even the ex-food and energy component chimed in with a 2.4% year-over-year clip, with the three-month trend easing to just 1.6%. (For reference, U.S. ex food & energy CPI was 3.1% y/y last month.)

On the trade war watch, goods excluding energy and groceries eased slightly to a 1.7% year-over-year pace from 2.0% in July. That’s still a bit hotter than the pre-pandemic norm, but less than half the pace seen during the pandemic inflation scare of 2022/23. Auto prices had been leading the way higher in recent months, but they cooled slightly to 4.0% y/y, from 4.5% the prior month.

This report showed inflation measures rising no more than a tame 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) in seasonally adjusted terms. That pace won’t cause the Bank of Canada much stress, thus keeping them on track for a rate cut at tomorrow’s decision.

The milder underlying short-term trends in core, alongside the recent weakening in employment, bode well for further rate relief this fall. However, we suspect the Bank will continue to take it one meeting at a time, restrained by the 3% year-over-year trends in some core measures, as well as the likelihood that headline inflation will rise, at least temporarily, in next month’s report due to base effects.

The employment rate—the proportion of the working-age population who are employed—fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.5% in August, the second consecutive monthly decline. The employment rate has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, falling 0.6 percentage points from January to August.

The number of self-employed workers fell by 43,000 (-1.6%) in August. Self-employment has trended down in recent months, offsetting gains recorded in the second half of 2024 and in early 2025.

The private sector lost 7,500 jobs last month, while the public sector shed 15,000. Regionally, the provinces of Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia led losses.

The participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—fell by 0.1 percentage points to 65.1% in August.

From May to August, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) collects labour market information from students who attended school full-time in March and who intend to return to school full-time in the fall.
The unemployment rate for returning students stood at 16.9% in August, similar to the rate observed 12 months earlier (16.3%) (not seasonally adjusted).

For the summer of 2025 overall (the average from May to August), the unemployment rate for returning students aged 15 to 24 was 17.9%. This was the highest since the summer of 2009 (18.0%), excluding the pandemic year of 2020. The unemployment rate for returning students has increased each summer since 2022 (when it was 10.4%).

The unemployment rate among returning students in the summer of 2025 was higher for men (19.2%) than for women (16.8%).

Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 23,000 (-2.1%) in August, offsetting a similar-sized increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was little changed in August.

Employment change by industry in August 2025

On the other hand, employment rose in construction (+17,000; +1.1%) in August, offsetting most of the decline in July (-22,000; -1.3%). Employment in construction has recorded little net variation since the beginning of the year, and the increase in August was the first since January.

Employment in Ontario decreased by 26,000 (-0.3%) in August. Compared to the recent peak in February 2025, employment in the province decreased by 66,000 (-0.8%) in August. The unemployment rate in Ontario declined by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7% in August, as the number of people searching for work decreased.

Since the beginning of the year, regions of Southern Ontario have faced an uncertain economic climate, brought on by the threat or imposition of tariffs, including on motor vehicle and parts exports. Across Canada’s 20 largest census metropolitan areas, the highest unemployment rates in August were in Windsor (11.1% compared with 9.1% in January), Oshawa (9.0% compared with 8.2% in January) and Toronto (8.9% compared with 8.8% in January) (three-month moving averages).

In British Columbia, employment decreased by 16,000 (-0.5%) in August, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Losses in the month were mainly among core-aged men (-13,000; -1.2%). The unemployment rate in British Columbia rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.2%.

In Alberta, employment fell by 14,000 (-0.6%) in August, also the second consecutive monthly decrease. The most significant declines in the month were in manufacturing and in wholesale and retail trade. The unemployment rate in Alberta rose 0.6 percentage points to 8.4% in August, the highest rate since August 2017 (excluding 2020 and 2021).

Unemployment rate by province and territory, August 2025

Employment held steady for a second consecutive month in Quebec in August. The number of people looking for work increased by 24,000 (+9.0%), pushing the unemployment rate up 0.5 percentage points to 6.0%.

Total hours worked were little changed in August (+0.1%) and were up 0.9% compared with 12 months earlier.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.2% (+$1.12 to $36.31) on a year-over-year basis in August, following growth of 3.3% in July (not seasonally adjusted).

The two-year government of Canada bond yield fell about four bps on the news, while the loonie weakened. Traders in overnight swaps fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada by year-end, and boosted the odds of a September cut to about 85%.

The Bank of Canada has made it clear that it will focus on inflation more than on increasing slack in the economy, and a September cut may still hinge on the consumer price index release, which is due a day before the rate decision.

The August US nonfarm payrolls report was also released this morning, showing that job growth stalled while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%. Several sectors, including information, financial activities, manufacturing, federal government and business services, posted outright declines in August. Job growth was concentrated in the healthcare and leisure and hospitality sectors.

Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17. Fed Chair Jay Powell has been under massive pressure from the White House to do so. Barring a meaningful rise in August core inflation measures, the Fed will resume cutting rates.

Exports declined 7.5% in the second quarter after increasing 1.4% in the first quarter. As a consequence of United States-imposed tariffs, international exports of passenger cars and light trucks plummeted 24.7% in the second quarter. Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts (-18.5%) and travel services (-11.1%) also declined.

Amid the counter-tariff response by the Canadian government to imports from the United States (which has now been rescinded), international imports declined 1.3% in the second quarter, following a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. Lower imports of passenger vehicles (-9.2%) and travel services (-8.5%; primarily Canadians travelling abroad) were offset by higher imports of intermediate metal products (+35.8%), particularly unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals.

Export (-3.3%) and import (-2.3%) prices fell in the second quarter, as businesses likely absorbed some of the additional costs of tariffs by lowering prices. Given the larger decline in export prices, the terms of trade—the ratio of the price of exports to the price of imports—fell 1.1%.

But the report was not all bad news. Consumer resilience was also evident. Household consumption spending accelerated in Q2. Personal spending rose 4.5% compared to 0.5% in Q1. Government spending also notably contributed to growth.

An improvement in housing activity also added to economic activity. Residential investment grew at a firm rate of 6.3%, compared to a decline of 12.2% in the first quarter of the year.

Final domestic demand rose 3.5% annualized, reflecting resilience and perhaps Canadians’ boycott of US travel or US products. However, income growth was up just 0.7% year-over-year (at an annual rate), which pulled the savings rate down one percentage point to 5.0%, potentially hampering consumers’ ability to continue their spending.

Inventories of finished goods and inputs to the production process increased by 26.9%, reflecting the Q1 stockpiling of goods that would be subject to future tariffs.

While Q2 was soft, June GDP was arguably more disappointing at -0.1% m/m, two ticks below consensus. Manufacturing was the surprise, falling 1.5%. Services were mixed, with gains in wholesale and retail offsetting some broader weakness. The July flash estimate was +0.1% (on the firmer side, given some of the soft data thus far), but the June figure makes it clear that the final print can be quite different.

The Bank had Q2 GDP at -1.5% in their July Monetary Policy Report, so the miss was minor. And, the strength in domestic demand highlights the economy’s resilience. One negative is that Q3 is tracking softer than their +1% estimate (closer to +0.5%), but it’s still very early, and things can change materially.

Bottom Line

The odds are no better than even for the Bank of Canada to cut rates when they meet again on September 17. There are two key data releases before then — the August Labour Force Survey, released August 5, a week from today, and the August CPI release on September 16. We would have to see considerable weakness in both reports to trigger a Canadian rate cut next month.

A Fed rate cut is far more likely, as telegraphed by Chair Jay Powell at the annual Jackson Hole confab. The battle between the White House and the Fed has intensified with President Trump’s firing of Governor Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Board and a Biden appointee. If Trump were to succeed, it would enable him to appoint a majority of the Federal Reserve Board, potentially allowing him to dictate monetary policy.

Trump wants significantly lower interest rates in the US, but even if he succeeds, only shorter-term rates would decline. The loss of Fed independence could lead to higher, longer-term interest rates, which could likely result in higher fixed mortgage rates in Canada. Moreover, inflation pressures could intensify, leading to continued upward pressure on bond yields and diminishing the potential appeal of floating-rate mortgage loans.

The job loss was concentrated among youth ages 15 to 24 who have had a terrible time finding summer jobs this year. The unemployment rate for that group is a whopping 14.6%, the highest since September 2010 outside of the pandemic. The youth employment rate fell 0.7 percentage points to 53.6% in July—the lowest rate since November 1998, excluding the pandemic.

Trump’s tariff turmoil has halted so many crucial financial decisions. Potential homebuyers are deer-in-the-headlights despite the relatively low mortgage rates, strong supply of unsold homes, and lower prices. Potential move-up buyers similarly don’t take action despite the relatively strong bargaining power of buyers.

The number of employees in the private sector fell by 39,000 (-0.3%) in July, partly offsetting a cumulative gain of 107,000 (+0.8%) in May and June. There was little change in the number of public sector employees and in the number of self-employed workers in July.

Unemployed people continued to face difficulties finding work in July. Of the 1.6 million people who were unemployed in July, 23.8% were in long-term unemployment, meaning they had been continuously searching for work for 27 weeks or more. This was the highest share of long-term unemployment since February 1998 (excluding 2020 and 2021).

Compared with a year earlier, unemployed job seekers were more likely to remain unemployed from one month to the next. Nearly two-thirds (64.2%) of those who were unemployed in June remained unemployed in July, higher than the corresponding proportion for the same months in 2024 (56.8%, not seasonally adjusted).

Despite continued uncertainty related to tariffs and trade, the layoff rate was virtually unchanged at 1.1% in June compared with a year ago (1.2%). This measures the proportion of people who were employed in June but were laid off in July. In comparison, the layoff rate for the corresponding months from 2017-19, before the pandemic, averaged 1.2%.

There were fewer people in the labour force in July as many discouraged workers dropped out, and the participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—fell by 0.2 percentage points to 65.2%. Despite the decrease in the month, the participation rate was little changed on a year-over-year basis.

Despite continued uncertainty related to tariffs and trade, the layoff rate was virtually unchanged at 1.1% in July compared with 12 months earlier (1.2%). This represents the proportion of people who were employed in June but had become unemployed in July as a result of a layoff. In comparison, the layoff rate for the corresponding months from 2017 to 2019, before the pandemic, averaged 1.2% (not seasonally adjusted).

There were fewer people in the labour force in July, and the participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—fell by 0.2 percentage points to 65.2%. Despite the decrease in the month, the participation rate was stable on a year-over-year basis.

Employment declined in information, culture and recreation by 29,000 (-3.3%). In construction, employment decreased by 22,000 (-1.3%) in July, following five consecutive months of little change. The number of people working in construction in July was about the same as it was 12 months earlier.

Employment fell in business, building and other support services (-19,000; -2.8%), marking the third decline in the past four months for the industry. Employment also fell in health care and social assistance (-17,000; -0.6%), offsetting a similar-sized increase in June. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in health care and social assistance was up by 54,000 (+1.9%) in July.

Employment rose in transportation and warehousing (+26,000; +2.4%) in July, the first increase since January. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry was little changed in July.

The number of jobs declined in Alberta (-17,000; -0.6%) and British Columbia (-16,000; -0.5%), while it increased in Saskatchewan (+3,500; +0.6%). There was little change in the other provinces.
Total hours worked in July were little changed both in the month (-0.2%) and compared with 12 months earlier (+0.3%).

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.3% (+$1.17 to $36.16) on a year-over-year basis in July, following growth of 3.2% in June (not seasonally adjusted).

The two-year government of Canada bond yield fell about four bps on the news, while the loonie weakened. Traders in overnight swaps fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada by year-end, and boosted the odds of a September cut to about 40%, from 30% previously.

Oddly enough, manufacturing payrolls rose in July despite the tariffs. This was the second consecutive monthly gain for a sector that one would expect to be most affected by the trade war. Manufacturing employment has fallen year-over-year.

This was an unambiguously weak report, but it comes hard on the heels of a robust report. Averaging the two months of data suggests there is an excess supply in the economy. But we will need to see a decline in core inflation for the Bank of Canada to resume cutting interest rates.

Traders are now expecting the US central bank to cut interest rates when it meets again in September. With any luck at all, this will pressure the Bank to cut rates as well, but only if the interim two inflation reports show an improvement, and the labour market remains weak. The next jobs report is on September 5, and the Bank of Canada meets again on September 17.

On a year-over-year basis, total transactions have risen 11.2% since March.

There is growing confidence that the Canadian economy will resiliently weather the tariff trauma. The Canadian dollar is up, and longer-term interest rates have edged downward in the past ten days. Traders are now anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Tuesday’s release of the Canadian CPI will provide another data point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth has held up, in large part because much of the pain from tariffs has been confined to industries singled out for levies, including autos, steel and aluminum.

Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist, said, “With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost 4% at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived. The shock and maybe the dread that we felt back in February, March and April seem to have faded,” as people become less concerned about their future employment.

New supply was little changed (+0.1%) month-over-month in July. Combined with the notable increase in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 52%, up from 50.1% in June and 47.4% in May. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 202,500 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of July 2025, up 10.1% from a year earlier and in line with the long-term average for that time of the year.

“Activity continues to pick up through the transition from the spring to the summer market, which is the opposite of a normal year, but this has not been a normal year,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Typically, we see a burst of new listings right at the beginning of September to kick off the fall market, but it seems like buyers are increasingly returning to the market.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2025, dropping further below the long-term average of five months of inventory as sales continue to pick up. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged between June and July 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since May.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to July 2024. This was a smaller decrease than the one recorded in June.

Based on the extent to which prices fell off in the second half of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the benchmark price was $688,700, 3.4% lower than a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in June, and the board expects year-over-year declines to continue shrinking, it said in a statement.

While many expect the Fed to ease in September, I’m not sure it will happen. The producer price index came in hotter than expected this week. Fed action will depend mainly on the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation, which will be out on August 29.

US stagflation worries have emerged with the release of the July employment report, which showed considerable weakness, enough to get the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics fired. The likelihood of a BoC cut will increase if the Fed begins a series of easing moves as the administration is demanding.