The year-over-year acceleration in the all-items CPI was driven by the temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break that began on December 14, 2024. This resulted in monthly declines for the exempt goods and services, which have now fallen out of the year-over-year movement, putting upward pressure on headline CPI growth.

The headline CPI accelerated, but the year-over-year decline in gasoline prices in December moderated it. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.0% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November.

The CPI fell 0.2% month over month in December. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%.

Various indexes were affected by the GST/HST exemption in December 2024, including restaurant food, alcoholic beverages, toys, games and hobby supplies, children’s clothing and some grocery items, such as potato chips and confectionery.

Year over year, higher restaurant prices were the largest contributor to faster all-items CPI growth in December 2025. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 8.5% in December, up from 3.3% in November. Prices for alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments (+6.5%) and purchased from stores (+5.6%) also rose faster in December.

Prices for toys, games (excluding video games) and hobby supplies rose 7.5% in December, after a 0.5% decline in November. Additionally, prices for children’s clothing accelerated in December (+4.8%) compared with November (+2.4%).

Year-over-year price growth also picked up for potato chips and other snack products (+7.9%) and confectionery (+14.2%).

Despite being unchanged month over month, prices for food purchased from stores rose 5.0% year over year in December. Coffee (+30.8%) and fresh or frozen beef (+16.8%) remained the largest contributors to the increase.

This report confirms the Bank’s hold on the policy rate. Aside from food prices, inflation seems to be dissipating. The overall economy is in better-than-expected shape, as upward revisions to GDP since 2022 have been largely driven by stronger-than-expected productivity growth, a long-standing concern for the Canadian economy.

The backdrop of stronger growth and lower inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold for most of 2026, as the next rate move is likely to be a hike, but not until 2027 unless the US withdraws from CUSMA. In the meantime, the biggest loser in the past year has been the housing market.

The most recent Canadian Real Estate Association data suggests particularly weak activity in Ontario, the region hardest hit by the tariff uncertainty. A cautious Bank of Canada will monitor the effect of rapidly rising food prices on inflation expectations. With any luck at all, core inflation will continue to decelerate, keeping the Bank on the sidelines for much of this year.

Hopefully, greater clarity on the Canada-Mexico-US agreement will be forthcoming. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units last year, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, despite a series of Bank of Canada rate cuts.

“There doesn’t appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month-over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of 2025.”

New supply declined by 2% on a month-over-month basis in December, marking a fourth straight monthly drop. Combined with a slightly larger decrease in sales activity in December, the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 52.3% from 52.7% in November. This remains close to the long-term average national sales-to-new listings ratio of 54.9%. Readings roughly between 45% and 65% are generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 133,495 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of December 2025, up 7.4% from a year earlier but 9.9% below the long-term average for that time of year. Inventories have been falling since May 2025 owing to the mid-year rally in demand, meaning active listings could be back posting year-over-year declines around the time this year’s spring market gets going.

“While we remain in the quiet time of year for a little while longer, the spring market is now just around the corner, and it is expected to benefit from four years of pent-up demand, and interest rates that at this point are about as good as they are going to get,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Barring any further major uncertainty-causing events, that means we should see a more active market this year.”

There were 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2025, up slightly from 4.4 months, which had been the measure since August. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is 5 months of inventory. Based on the measure of one standard deviation above and below that long -term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

The National Composite MLS ® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 0.3% between November and December 2025. It was similar to the dip recorded in November and could reflect some sellers making price concessions to sell properties before the end of the year. Most of the overall price softening in December came from markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region, which was hit hard by US tariffs.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 4% from December 2024. Under the surface, year-over-year declines are larger for condo apartments and townhomes, and smaller for one- and two-storey detached homes.

Today’s data end a year that saw house prices drift lower despite falling interest rates, as a simmering trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner caused higher unemployment and considerable job uncertainty. Though US tariffs apply to a limited volume of Canadian goods, and the economy didn’t tip into a recession, the unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s trade policy has stoked a sense of economic insecurity.

In some regions, the price decline has now wiped out a sizable proportion of the gains homeowners saw during the torrid Covid market from 2020 to 2022, when overnight interest rates were reduced to a record-low 25 basis points. Back then, ultralow interest rates caused home prices to surge, particularly in smaller cities to which remote workers fled to take advantage of a lower cost of living.

Vancouver and Toronto remain by far the most expensive large cities. The benchmark price in Greater Vancouver was C$1.14 million in December. In the Toronto region, it was C$962,300 – down about 6% from a year earlier.

With many regional markets soft, sellers are now pulling back. New listings dropped 2% in December from the previous month, the fourth straight monthly decline. But the total number of homes on the market last month was still 7.4% higher than the previous year. That’s the equivalent of about 4.5 months of inventory.

We concur with the view that there is considerable pent-up demand among potential first-time buyers who will likely dip their toe in the market once winter passes. This year, we also see a record volume of refinances and renewals, which will increase monthly mortgage payments and dampen household purchasing power.

The jobless rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, as more people searched for work. The increase in the unemployment rate in December partially offsets a cumulative decline of 0.6 percentage points in the previous two months. Employment rose among people aged 55 and older, while it fell among youth aged 15 to 24.

Full-time employment rose by 50,000 (+0.3%) in December, while part-time employment fell by 42,000 (-1.1%). The decline in part-time work in the month partially offsets a cumulative gain of 148,000 (+3.9%) in October and November. Over the 12 months to December 2025, part-time employment rose at a faster pace (+2.6%; +99,000) than full-time employment (+0.7%; +128,000).

In December, there was little change in the number of private- and public-sector employees, as well as in the number of self-employed workers.

There were 1.6 million people unemployed in December, an increase of 73,000 (+4.9%) from November.

The participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—rose by 0.3 percentage points to 65.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the labour force participation rate was unchanged in December. The unemployment rate for youth aged 15 to 24 rose 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% in December, as fewer youth were employed (-27,000; -1.0%). Labour market conditions had previously improved for youth in October and November, with employment rising by 70,000 (2.6%) and the youth unemployment rate falling by 1.9 percentage points over this period.

In 2025, Trump’s tariff policy and negative attitude towards Canada have caused considerable uncertainty, having a marked deleterious effect on the Canadian economic outlook, particularly in sectors dependent on US demand. Job vacancies also fell during 2025.

The Bank of Canada has reiterated that its primary mandate is price stability, effectively leaving the task of closing the output gap to fiscal authorities. By early next year, it will likely become evident that fiscal support delivered through large capital projects is rolling out too slowly to offset near-term weakness in activity materially. If layoffs persist at their recent pace and the United States were to withdraw from the Canada‑US‑Mexico Agreement, the case for an additional round of monetary easing would strengthen.

Absent that downside scenario, the more plausible path is a slow and limited normalization of policy. Market pricing currently anticipates that the next move by the Bank of Canada will be to raise the overnight policy rate, but that is not likely until at least late this year.

In November, prices for services rose 2.8% year over year, compared with a 3.2% increase in October. Prices for travel tours declined 8.2% last month following a 2.6% increase in October. Monthly, these prices fell 12.0%, as lower demand for destinations in the United States put downward pressure on the index.

Prices for traveller accommodation fell to a greater extent on a year-over-year basis in November (-6.9%) than in October (-0.6%). The most significant contributor to the lower prices was Ontario (-20.2%), partially due to a base-year effect from a swift monthly increase in November 2024 (+11.0%), which coincided with a series of high-profile concerts in Toronto.

Lower prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation, in addition to slower growth for rent prices, put downward pressure on the all-items CPI.

Offsetting the slower growth in services on an annual basis were higher prices for goods, driven by increases in grocery prices and a smaller decline in gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.6% for the third consecutive month.

The CPI rose 0.1% month over month in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2%.

Grocery Price Inflation Highest Since the end of 2023

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% year over year in November after increasing 3.4% in October. The increase in November was the largest since December 2023 (+4.7%). The main contributors to the acceleration in November 2025 were fresh fruit (+4.4%), led by higher prices for berries, and other food preparations (+6.6%).

In November, prices for fresh or frozen beef (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%) remained significant contributors to overall grocery inflation on an annual basis. Higher beef prices have been driven, in part, by lower cattle inventories in North America. Adverse weather conditions in growing regions have affected coffee prices, which have risen amid American tariffs on coffee-producing countries, contributing to higher prices for refined coffee.

On a monthly basis, grocery prices rose 1.9% in November, the largest month-over-month increase since January 2023.

Acting as a bit of a counterweight, shelter costs—the earlier inflation villain—continue to moderate. Owned accommodation expenses are now up just 1.7% y/y, the slowest pace in almost a decade amid sagging home prices. Rent inflation remains sticky, but did tick down to 4.7% y/y last month. Keep an eye on electricity prices, which have been a major issue in the US, where AI data centers consume large amounts of electricity. The cost of electricity jumped 1.5% in the month and is now up 3.4% y/y. Telephone services have also leapt recently, after falling heavily the past two years; they are now up 11.7% y/y, the fastest increase since 1982.

The good news is that inflation will average just over 2% for all of 2025, down from 2.4% last year and the lowest annual tally in five years. The less-good news is that this moderation was mainly due to the removal of the consumer carbon tax, which alone shaved about half a point off the annual average.

This report confirms the Bank’s hold on the policy rate. Aside from food prices, inflation seems to be dissipating. The overall economy is in better-than-expected shape as the upward revisions in GDP since 2022 were largely the result of better than expected productivity growth–long a big concern for the Canadian economy.

The backdrop of better growth and lower inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold for most of 2026, as the next move in rates is likely to be a hike, but not until late next year. In the meantime, the biggest loser in the past year has been the housing market.

Today’s release of existing home sales by the Canadian Real Estate Association suggests particularly weak activity in Ontario, the region hardest hit by the tariff uncertainty. A cautious Bank of Canada will monitor the effect of rapidly rising food prices on inflation expectations. With any luck at all, core inflation will continue to decelerate, keeping the Bank on the sidelines for much of next year.

Hopefully, greater clarity on the Canada-Mexico-US agreement will be forthcoming in the New Year. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.