January Jobs Report Dispells Recession Fears Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for January was a mixed bag and shows the dramatic effect of surging immigration. Canadian employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 37,300, but part-time jobs rose by 48,900, and in the public sector, the gain was huge. The employment rate fell a tick because population […]

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling […]

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month. Additional acceleration came from airfares, […]

Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for December was a mixed bag and far more robust than the weak headline figure suggests. Total employment in Canada barely budged, rising by a mere 100 jobs in the final month of last year. However, the labour force participation […]

Inflation Held Steady In November Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a […]

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by projecting […]

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each […]

Jobless Rates Hits 22-Month High–Led by Losses in Finance and Real Estate Employment Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for November was a mixed bag. Total employment gains were stronger than expected. However, the rising unemployment rate and drop in hours worked were signs of mounting economic weakness, especially in the financial and real estate sectors. […]

The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024 The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the […]

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding […]