Housing Market Sales Dipped in July, Spooked By Rate Hikes According to Shaun Cathcart, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Senior Economist, “Following a brief surge of activity in April, housing markets have settled down in recent months, with price growth now also moderating with its usual slight lag. Sales and price growth are already showing signs […]

July Headline Inflation Rose to 3.3%, But Core Inflation Improved The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% y/y in July, up from a 2.8% rise in June. The acceleration in headline inflation was widely expected due to a base-year effect on gasoline prices, as a sizeable monthly decline in July 2022 (-9.2%) no longer impacts the 12-month movement. Excluding […]

The Long-Awaited Labour Market Slowdown The Canadian economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, far weaker than the 25,000 gain that was expected. The jobless rate was 5.5%, the third consecutive monthly rise. This likely improves the chances the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines in September. Wage inflation, however, re-accelerated, moving back to […]

Canadian Inflation Falls Within Bank of Canada’s Target Range; Food and Shelter Costs Remain High June inflation data released today by Statistics Canada showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year (y/y), slightly below expectations. This was the lowest CPI reading since February 2022. The decline in inflation was mainly due to lower energy prices, […]

Bank of Canada June Rate Hike Spooks the Housing Market The Canadian Real Estate Association says the BoC’s surprise rate hike in early June cooled activity following a two-month solid start to the spring housing season. Home sales posted a 1.5% gain between May and June, tepid by recent standards. Sales were up in June in […]

Interest Rates Will Stay Higher For Longer The Bank of Canada increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points this morning to 5.0%, its highest level since March 2001. Never before has a policy action been so widely expected. Still, the Bank’s detailed outlook in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) suggests stronger growth and […]

It’s a Close Call Which Way the Bank Will Go Employment growth last month came in at a whopping 60,000 jobs, tripling expectations, and most of those net new jobs were for full-time workers. As our population grows, more people are available to fill job vacancies. Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+33,000), manufacturing […]

Will the May Inflation Decline Thwart Another Rate Hike in July? The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists […]

Strong May Housing Triggered BoC Rate Hike The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in May rose 5.1% month-over-month (m/m), adding to the 11.1% gain in April. This brought the year-over-year sales gain to 1.4%, The first y/y sales increase in almost two years. While spring home sales started booming (compared to the past […]